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Post by Pleonast on Jul 22, 2013 15:59:37 GMT
So, what's a Dizzymrslizzy to do when Jaade is on the block? Scum should play as if they were town, except when deciding the Night kill. So, Dizzy should out Jaade as the probable town protector. If Dizzy does that before Jaade claims (not likely now), there'd be a lot of townie cred for it.
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Post by sistercoyote on Jul 22, 2013 16:34:57 GMT
Where's pizzaguy? I want to mock them for totally falling into my trap. Moderating on the Giraffe.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 22, 2013 19:46:14 GMT
What the heck is patricia thinking? A three-scum false claim of being masons? When there's an active Vig, too. That's simply suicide by the scum team if it were true.
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Post by sistercoyote on Jul 22, 2013 23:42:08 GMT
I may have infected patricia with my paranoia about masons...
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jul 23, 2013 5:28:41 GMT
that was a wild ending. scum's definitely in trouble. do they NK a mason who will not be lynched? the doc is also also unlikely to be lynched and can protect? or the vig who should be shooting either Suburban, Dizzy, Patricia and Cookies?
if i were Colby, i wouldn't kill Patricia since she claimed vanilla and a second vanilla should be likely when considering all the claims together.
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Post by paranoia on Jul 23, 2013 5:51:17 GMT
I've been a bad, bad man for awhile now. yeah, but not when we were masons in Julie's Scooby Doo game. you helped me get through the jitters in my first serious Mafia game here on Idle. i was really touched. *sniff* I promptly got shived. :,)
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Post by paranoia on Jul 23, 2013 7:06:31 GMT
And so pizza guy screwed the pooch for his team, by pulling an unnecessary claim gambit instead of just playing the game.
Lord I understand wanting to do things dramatically as scum but that rarely works well.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 23, 2013 14:19:24 GMT
Let's look at where we're at.
1. Jaade - town protector, claimed and not lynchable 2. texcat - scum, no claim 3. DarkCookies - vote charger, claimed and lynchable 4. meeko - mason, claimed and not lynchable 5. patricia - town vanilla, claimed and lynchable 6. colby - town killer, claimed and lynchable 7. mahaloth - mason, claimed and not lynchable 8. Suburban Plankton - scum, no claim and lynchable 9. BillMc - mason, claimed and not lynchable 10. dizzymrslizzy - scum watcher, claimed and slightly lynchable
So it's 7 town vs 3 scum. That gives 1.5 mislynches. That is, the second mislynch loses the game for town. There are 3 lynchable town (Cookies, patricia and colby). There's two unclaimed scum (this will look very bad for them if anyone checks), but dizzy is getting a pass as townie at the moment.
If colby kills town, the number if mislynches is reduced by 0.5. If they kill scum, the number increases by 0.5. If they kill again, it will make a large impact on the game state, one way or the other.
Scum have to kill the masons and doctor because they're not lynchable. Killing any of the lynchable townies is a big mistake. They may be tempted to kill colby, but they really need a miskill.
I think the best bet for scum is to kill Jaade, but they risk a self protection, so really any of the masons are good targets too.
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Post by texcat on Jul 23, 2013 15:45:56 GMT
What a frustrating game! Sorry Para about getting you lynched D1. Who knew that anyone would pay the slightest bit of attention to one of my "cases", if you can call honest honest a case? I thought I actually had a pretty good case on Cookies today, but no one listened to that. And it's so frustrating trying to argue things at the last minute -- especially when things are going against you! I'm sure a better talker could have talked their way out of that lynch -- although if Patricia had just voted before Bill, we would have lynched a mason! I was actually thinking of claiming town roleblocker for a while, but couldn't have pulled it off at the last minute from my tablet. Colby has a good target in Patricia tonight, at least. Well done, Pleo. I should have argued more strongly for killing Jaade instead of you. Unfortunately, it looked like Suburban was the one who was going to get killed if I was wrong and you were the vig, and so I deferred to him.
The 3 person masonry was hard to overcome, but we didn't play well. Actually Dizzy might stand a chance at surviving for a while. Why did everyone just accept that she watched Pizza last night? Was it just my PIS showing that I thought watching Pizza was scummy?
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Post by texcat on Jul 23, 2013 15:50:11 GMT
Oh, I just saw that Jaade self-protected last night. Killing her instead of Pleo wouldn't have worked very well either.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 23, 2013 16:05:14 GMT
I don't think a town watcher targeting pizzaguy was unreasonable. pizzaguy was a known scum who was likely going to be targeted by a town (or possibly third-party) killer. Who knows what powers scum might try to use to block or redirect or otherwise mess with the kill? The alternative would be what, trying to guess who scum were going to kill? That's iffy too.
Now revealing who the pizzaguy killer was is more scummy. But only because a third-party killer is unlikely in such a small game. Still arguable, I think.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 23, 2013 16:24:13 GMT
Let's look at where we're at. 1. Jaade - town protector, claimed and not lynchable 2. texcat - scum, no claim 3. DarkCookies - vote charger, claimed and lynchable 4. meeko - mason, claimed and not lynchable 5. patricia - town vanilla, claimed and lynchable 6. colby - town killer, claimed and lynchable 7. mahaloth - mason, claimed and not lynchable 8. Suburban Plankton - scum, no claim and lynchable 9. BillMc - mason, claimed and not lynchable 10. dizzymrslizzy - scum watcher, claimed and slightly lynchable So it's 7 town vs 3 scum. That gives 1.5 mislynches. That is, the second mislynch loses the game for town. There are 3 lynchable town ( Cookies, patricia and colby). There's two unclaimed scum (this will look very bad for them if anyone checks), but dizzy is getting a pass as townie at the moment. If colby kills town, the number if mislynches is reduced by 0.5. If they kill scum, the number increases by 0.5. If they kill again, it will make a large impact on the game state, one way or the other. Scum have to kill the masons and doctor because they're not lynchable. Killing any of the lynchable townies is a big mistake. They may be tempted to kill colby, but they really need a miskill. I think the best bet for scum is to kill Jaade, but they risk a self protection, so really any of the masons are good targets too. Doh! this is what I get for simply copying the moderators "current" player list. Obviously, texcat is dead scum now. So it's 7 town vs 2 scum. That gives 2.0 mislynches, or the third mislynch loses the game for town. And with only 3 lynchable townies left, that is going to be hard. We're at Night 3 with 4 unlynchable town plus 3 lynchable versus 2 scum. Assuming no Vig kills and no scum lynches: N3: 4+3 vs 2 D4: 3+3 vs 2 N4: 3+2 vs 2 D5: 2+2 vs 2 N5: 2+1 vs 2 D6: 1+1 vs 2 == scum win With one Vig kill on a lynchable town and no scum lynches: N3: 4+3 vs 2 D4: 3+2 vs 2 N4: 3+1 vs 2 D5: 2+1 vs 2 == town must lynch correctly or lose With one Vig kill on a scum and no scum lynches: N3: 4+3 vs 2 D4: 3+3 vs 1 N4: 3+2 vs 1 D5: 2+2 vs 1 N5: 2+1 vs 1 D6: 1+1 vs 1 == town must lynch correctly or lose With no Vig kills and one scum lynch: N3: 4+3 vs 2 D4: 3+3 vs 2 N4: 3+3 vs 1 D5: 2+3 vs 1 N5: 2+2 vs 1 D6: 1+2 vs 1 N6: 1+1 vs 1 D7: 0+1 vs 1 == scum win Either side can still win, with a reasonable chance, I think.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jul 24, 2013 12:11:33 GMT
i see that Colby has chosen to NK Patricia. as i said earlier, i think it's the wrong decision. having a second vanilla is likely and her voting a mason is a sign she's town. texcat's me too on Meeko was the suspicious one.
i also see scum have chosen Colby. i disagree. i prefer a mason since they will not be lynched and hope Colby keeps hitting town.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 24, 2013 14:29:36 GMT
It looks like both killers are making mistakes, but scum are making the bigger one. The game is over.
At the beginning of Night Three we have 4 unlynchable town plus 3 lynchable town versus 2 scum. At Day Four we'll have 4 unlynchable town plus 1 lynchable town versus 2 scum. That's 1.5 mislynches, but there's only one possible mislynch left.
That is, once Cookies is mislynched, there's no more townies who could be mislynched. Assuming the remaining town will not vote to lynch any of the masons or the protector, scum cannot win.
I don't think it's unreasonable to call the game. Ask scum if they want to concede. But if they don't, let it play out one more Day-Night cycle, just to see Dizzy try to spin out of the lynch. It can't happen, but maybe they want to try.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 24, 2013 14:31:49 GMT
And just to spell it out more clearly--scum are making the huge mistake of killing a player who could be lynched rather than killing a player that cannot be.
Rule Number One: scum win by getting mislynches.
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