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Post by texcat on Jul 28, 2013 14:07:53 GMT
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jul 28, 2013 18:06:20 GMT
if i were still in the game, i'd be voting for Bill for not being his usual scumhunting self. he's looking at PM errors rather than looking at posts.
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Post by jaade on Jul 29, 2013 3:51:39 GMT
Sometimes, even as town we change things up. It seems like everyone doesn't like the way Bill usually plays from comments I see from time to time. Maybe he was just trying to keep the target off of himself to help town.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jul 29, 2013 4:24:11 GMT
i'm exaggerating, of course. i wouldn't vote a mason. i just don't understand why he's opting to ignore his time tested method of looking at sincerity.
i understand the concern to be targeted but he's an admitted mason. he definitely is a target now.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jul 29, 2013 4:39:29 GMT
i take it all back.
looks like he went back to his instincts.
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Post by jaade on Jul 29, 2013 6:09:26 GMT
Well, I was vigged in Colby's HK game and it did make me more cautious as Town. I am naturally a talkative person and I am "bubbly" at times. Combine that with me changing my vote from Town brownie to scummy Burby = NK. Frustrating!
So in this game, I was truly busy busy busy in RL and that made it easier for me to post only what was necessary and not draw as much attention to myself. Little did I know that scum was onto me since N1 when I protected you.
Sorry about voting for you! I don't know why I second-guessed my instinct that your claim made more sense than Pizza's.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 29, 2013 16:46:00 GMT
... REALLY BILL. OH NO SPELLING ERRORS WE SHOULD LYNCH THE CLAIMED VIG. Dammit town, scum always should go before *possible* pfks. how is this hard for you guys to wrap your brains around? Pleo, here is why we are going to lose: you people keep relying more on supposed 'slips' and tells instead of sussing people out the good old fashioned way. As long as you're not going to bother to consider what people say and go over what they say and in relation to who, town will continue to lose, irregardless of mechanics. You're barking up the wrong tree. I generally don't lynch based on quibbling over role PMs. And when I've made exceptions to that, I've been burned (a Day-One lynch of Mahaloth because the moderator wrote/designed the PM/role poorly), so it'll take me a lot for me to do it again. Looking for slips and tells is useful, especially very early in the game when there's no record to go on. For me, they're one way to do a "gut check" of another player. And about as accurate. By the way, looking at slips is considering what players are saying. But once there's some votes and behavior to analyze, I use that. Note how my prime suspects on Day Two were Plankton and Dizzy, based on their actions to date. By the way, around here the "good old fashioned way" was lynching players who spoke a lot and/or did something unorthodox. Not something we want to go back to.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 29, 2013 19:46:11 GMT
From dizzymrslizzy on the scum board: You're very close to winning, even if it's not probable. If Colby kills you, it's all over, of course. But if they kill Cookies, then you simply need to get Colby lynched and you've won the game.
Even if Colby kills no one, as long as either Colby or Cookies is lynched the next Day, you're still in the end.
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Post by jaade on Jul 29, 2013 19:58:03 GMT
I'm really afraid that Colby sent in an order to kill Cookies. Lizzy's last post in the Day 4 thread sounds so desperate to me, I think she might have slipped there. If Colby was here to see that, it could make a difference.
ToNight, he kills Cookies, she kills Bill? That leaves her against Colby, Mahaloth and Meeko. Yep, she can still win it and it doesn't seem very improbable right now. Best chance for town is if Colby and Dizzy pick same target or Colby didn't send in a kill order and they catch Lizzy toMorrow.
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Post by paranoia on Jul 29, 2013 20:02:24 GMT
Chances are they'll lynch dizzy before colby. Town will have to bank on colby being a vig instead of a sk to have *any* hope of winning, and that would mean Dizzy is the only viable lynch day five in that scenario. and let's assume she targets the same person as colby - in this case I think it's likely to be cookies. that will be 5 people going alive into day 5, The three masons, colby, and dizzy.
Assuming they lynch colby for fear he's a pfk, dizzy still has no wriggle room day six and will get lynched if town rolls out of bed. come to think of it, dizzy really doesn't have any options here. Two deaths, she fries. Kills the same person as colby she fries eventually. Town simply won't lynch colby as long as there's a confirmed scum kill floating about.
In other news, I feel like the most amusing thing about this game is scum lost because Pizza Guy is no where near as good as he thinks he is, and his hairbrained scheme cost his team manpower, someone who could get the less proactive members of the town to do things he wanted, and in generally was just bad play all around.
Town MVP right there.
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Post by jaade on Jul 29, 2013 20:12:29 GMT
Burby brought up a great point. IF Colby and Lizzy kill toNight, whoever is left will know there is a 4th scum and if Cookies dies, Lizzy is caught, no two ways about it. She shouldn't kill toNight, but she already targeted Mahaloth.
If Colby didn't send in an order, and isn't back by EOD from his cruise, Lizzy can say it was Colby who killed Mahaloth. That would leave
Cookies Bill Meeko Colby Lizzy
She argues for Colby's lynch, kills Bill. Then she has to convince Meeko to vote for Cookies on Day 6 to win. That won't work, Cookies is basically verified Town with the vote-charging.
In my previous post, I'd forgotten that Colby should know Cookies is Town.
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Post by paranoia on Jul 29, 2013 20:20:12 GMT
But I'm not Burby unless he said the same thing on the scum boards.
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Post by jaade on Jul 29, 2013 20:36:11 GMT
He did, end of the Day Four thread
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 29, 2013 20:38:09 GMT
So - anyone think Dizzy can argue to lynch Colby?
I would actually like to see Dizzy do it on her first Scum time. Unlikely, but there you go.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 29, 2013 21:07:26 GMT
There's always the serial killer angle. It should be hard, because a 16-player game with 4 scum doesn't really support a third-party killer. Town will be certain there's 4 scum, and will know that town powers are not enough to balance against it. But some players can be very paranoid, and so they may fall for lynching Colby.
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